Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Rising stock prices may be self-sustaining, but rising commodity prices are self-limiting

The upswing in resource prices continues. From a fundamental perspective this is no surprise. As the US, Japan, and Europe pursue an unremittingly loose monetary policy, credit supply to the “real” economy is more or less stagnant. Therefore a lot of capital is available for speculation. In addition, growth rates (and the anticipated returns) in the emerging economic nations outpace those in the West, whereas the former consume relatively high quantities of commodities. Owing to various capital restrictions it has now become easier and cheaper to speculate on buoyant growth in the upcoming economies through the commodity markets. On top of this US growth is accelerating while resources are becoming more popular as an inflation hedge.

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